Fast Start conversation: People overestimate their ability to judge risk. Both the upside potential as well as the downside loss.
Incomplete data plagues all who make decisions, but a weatherman and a doctor, highlighted in How to Beat the Odds at Judging Risk, differ in how they manage bias.
There are keys to estimate probabilities more accurately and prompt feedback is at the heart. What other keys are shown to help?
Where does your overconfidence to evaluate incomplete information cause the greatest risk to success?